https://gs.statcounter.com/os-market-share/desktop/north-america/#monthly-200901-202607
Cloudflare stats also seem to support peaks of 15% usage but around 9-10% on average. In the United States alone, the market share for Linux is nearly 12% now for the whole month and Cloudflare stats suggest peaks of up to 25% (!) Linux desktop usage on certain days and times.
The trendline suggests this is just the start. When will companies realize they cannot ignore Linux anymore?
Look out for any Linux dip in figures, as some people give up trying to use Linux, and move away again. If they hit a tricky problem, and go online for help, some will just scare them away with an over techy response. And they will share their horror story, keeping more people away from Linux.
nvidia is a big hurdle imo
People really ought to stop with that, I’ve used nVidia for literally decades on my desktop with a variety of machines with Linux with little to no issues. And that’s been with distributions that were considerably less polished than what’s available today.
OTOH, I’ve had a number of issues (mostly patched now) with my Radeon RX 9070 XT.The fact that you have to enable a separate repository or tick a box during installation isn’t a “big hurdle”.
Well, that’s not my experience with Nvidia and Linux, always breaking everything trying to use the Nvidia driver, or updating it.
Specially when trying to do both gaming and CUDA on the same OS, making it work with one always broke the other. I had to have two installations, one for machine learning and the other as daily driver and gaming.
Maybe some AI crawlers started to honestly report Linux instead of Windows as they possibly did before? Otherwise such a quick spike is hard to explain (unbelievable). Or did I miss any big news lately?
//I’m on Linux in the last 15 years and I don’t even care that much about what unrelated to me people use, although I always do help fellow Linux-ers when I encounter them in the wild.
June 2026 had unknown at 20% but they removed it in favor of BSD
I don’t think Ai companies / crawlers are honest, so I would rule that out. And its not like a single big event happened over time, but many and people slowly catching up now. In example the big PewDiePie video is just 1 year old, lot of other “smaller” channels like Linus Tech Tips and many other even smaller channels talk about their experience switching to Linux, how to switch, what it offers and why Windows sucks. Valve with their ongoing support and development of Steam operating system and hardware sending shockwaves of news throughout the entire industry. Then there are governments and companies in the world who suddenly switch lot of machines at the same time.
There is so much going on in small steps, then together it makes a single huge step. Or there is just an error in the graph and I made myself a monkey with this speech. Both possible realities are fun.
Then there are governments and companies in the world who suddenly switch lot of machines at the same time.
Yep. Both Germany and France’ governments are actively switching to Linux and open software as a matter of policy
I’ve noticed some pretty big spikes in download stats for certain distros like CachyOS and Bazzite, too. I’ve seen a lot of stories of people churning through Linux in the past and recently coming back to it because the software has matured so much and Windows and OSX are enshittifying.
I think datacenter use may be part of it- usage peaks at the middle of the working day and the highest peaks are on Monday. Its also possible a lot of companies related to AI swapped to Linux distros on workforce computers to reduce headaches in managing AI workloads. There is something that happened July 1st-6th that caused the trendline to accelerate, maybe Kimi K3 news and market shocks? But it should be noted Bazzite and CachyOS use peaked around this time as well.
because the software has matured so much and Windows and OSX are enshittifying.
Honestly, this is the reason I like Linux so much better.
Corpo OSes tend to get worse with every update. But Linux gets better with every update.
Apparently Windows 11 sent out an EOL notice for October 2026 recently too. https://www.tech2geek.net/windows-11-24h2-support-ends-on-october-13-2026-heres-how-to-stay-protected/
Steam Machine also came out and sold around 20k machines in the USA. I also wouldn’t discount how good LLMs are at guiding people through “complicated” things like swapping to Linux. GPT for example suggests moving to Linux on first prompt after asking how to fix the windows 11 eol message. Seems like a perfect storm that led to a ton of people swapping to Linux for a wide variety of reasons.
windows 11 eol
What? How can Windows 11 already be EOL? And just in a few months!?
Is there just not going to be any Windows anymore? Or are they planning a surprise release of Windows 12 (AI prompt only edition) within the next month or two?
It’s not, the article is about update 24H2 of Windows 11. If you install updates you already have a newer version installed.
This was my thought. How much of this is lightweight crawlers to support AI. Nothing good ever happens for good reasons
Fingers crossed for a Century of M$ Humiliation
ive noticed lots of videos on youtube of people switching to linux.
honestly, i think the Linus Tech Tips linux challenge videos gave many people confidence to take the leap, along with people’s general distain for win11, and probably also the work Valve’s been doing on proton and the “release” of the steam machine is driving all this.
it really feels like adoption has spiked.
The recent Hardware Haven video I think was better that the LTT videos. That dude does a great job presenting some pros and cons and is much more level headed in his approach.
But I agree that the big names in YT is doing a good thing showing people it’s not too hard to switch, Especially if you have a spare SSD so you can keep your Windows install just in case.
I feel like I heard of more people switching after the Steam Deck, and then more after the forced expansion of copilot in Windows.
I haven’t heard much of ltt other than him trying Linux and not liking it. Kind of been more on the negative side until the Steam Machine. His attempts just seemed to end in disasters.
If youtubers are pointed to I think pewdiepie is the one with way more Linux influence given his bigger reach and going all in on it a long time ago as opposed to a recent stint of saying something good about it in passing due to the steam machine.
LTT did another Linux challenge recently, and this time their verdict was that they‘d all be staying on Linux for their personal PCs (with FakeLinus dual booting Windows, because he needs software there for his job). They did also say that most of their videos will still show Windows, as that is still the primary target of the manufacturers that send them the press kits.
What distro did Linus use that changed his mind? I remember him using I think CachyOS, and then other people saying that may have led to him encountering the problems he did.
I‘d have to rewatch the video, but he used Pop!_OS (with COSMIC) at first, and iirc he switched midway because it was so broken. Elijah used Bazzite, and Luke used CachyOS.
thats totally fair. im just noting what ive seen. feels like we’re hitting a tipping point tho. i dont expect a majority any time soon, but i think we could be pushing 20/30℅ before too long
ive been using linux since the 90s, and its finally at the point where the only thing holding it back is specific proprietary software that people think they need, or maybe properly need. i struggled like hell trying to run software i needed in college around 2007 for my math classes.
if we get enough of a market share, there will be more motivation to port to linux. not that that means itll happen
I think people making I can make a better steam machine content might have also helped too.
Microsoft helped the most though with Windows 11 forcing tpm requirements, disliked UI changes, copilot, and increasing hardware costs.
Among non gamers I think the buy non US alternatives helped get those that would normally not give more niche tech stuff a try to also join in. Such as guides people would share with alternatives to emails, software, phones, messengers, and OS.
Many different motivating factors now from boycotts, global relations, affordability, and increased accessibility of Linux than in the past pushing some people that wouldn’t have changed if life were not as eventful as it has been the last couple of years.
Most of my friends have either switched to linux or have said they will have to in the future
Its impressive how good microsoft is at getting people not want to use their os
Here I thought I blocked telemetry.
Which is why they knew you were running Linux. lol
When doing a browser check I usually get something along the lines of “browser information held back”, this almost certainly means you’re using Firefox.
YEAR OF THE LINUX DESKTOP BABY (im still stuck on windows 11 because of CAD)
FreeCAD has become quite usable over the past couple of years, and it keeps getting better with every update. I know you maybe don’t get to choose which CAD program you use since you’re a student, but thought I’d put it out there. I’ve been really enjoying it so far.
I generally use the weekly development releases for fun. So many improvements are coming. They are focusing on speed of redraw right now.
And if you don’t like the UI, check out either Open light/dark or Northern Lights.
It still can be a pain at times (complex chamfers and fillets don’t have particularly rugged calcs), but yeah it’s gotten better over the years
You might be interested in Winboat if that’s the only thing keeping you
I looked at Winboat’s website, and it seems really interesting but as an engineering student idk if it’s a good idea to take the risk of running a WIP software to access it. Plus, when I tried installing Linux last time (mint) it caused my trackpad, keyboard backlight, power mode options, and gpu/screen drivers to break (couldn’t run hdr, resolution locked to 1080p60, games only ran with integrated graphics). I know I can fix a good chunk of this is stuff on my own with downloading the right drivers/programs and enough time, but I don’t really want to spend any time doing that (and risk doing it incorrectly) since all my school work is on here
Some of that may have been fixed since last time you tried. Like, stuff is moving really fast right now. A lot of things that used to be stand alone fixes have been upstreamed.
Debian derived distros tend to move a lot slower (for the sake of iron clad stability), so even if something was fixed a year ago it might not be fixed in Mint, Ubuntu or the like.
Arch based distros like catchy will show what’s working right now.
Again, like, it still might not be to a point where you feel comfortable with it as a daily driver, but it’s still worth checking on from time to time, just to see if the issues you had have been fixed.
Good point. I’ve been eyeing Fedora KDE for the next distro I want to try out, and I’ve heard that’s among the most up-to-date distros that’s not straight-up rolling release
what gpu does it use? bazzite has a wizard for downloading isos that trivializes the whole driver problem
It’s a Legion Pro 5 with RTX 4070
Im waiting to see how big corpos will ruin Linux.
By first putting age verification in systemd.
I started using Linux in 1998. It’s not ruined yet and Red Hat,and SUSE, Canonical have been around the entire time. Companies can ruin dislros but not the code behind it.
Yep. Mandrake is the example of that.
It will be like Android. You have to use their app store to install new programs.
You are right, they just can copy what they already did in mobile.
Well android is Linux. That is exactly how Google twisted it to be their own walled garden. And as you can see they are raising the walls and requiring IDs to continue to be a part of it.
Funnily enough, android being its own ecosystem that happens to use the Linux kernel has led to quite a few improvements over the years in the kernel. Better scheduling, new filesystem drivers (exfat for example) better power management, etc. plus you can use some Linuxy utilities and tricks on Android because it’s ultimately just a Linux distro
As an OpenBSD user I find it funny how they list OpenBSD as 0%. Like, they could’ve just omitted it.
How do you like openBSD?
Copying from a reply to another comment:
I picked OpenBSD over other non-Linuxes because of its focus on security. Also I think the pufferfish is cute. It wasn’t that deep of a decision for that particular laptop. I do find it quite an enjoyable OS to use, and I have anecdotally had fewer problems with it than with Linuxes, I suspect because their whole security focus also means fewer bugs.
If you’re interested in it, just try it out in a VM.
It’s just you, @pmjv@lemmy.sdf.org and some of the other !unix_surrealists
sweet, there’s 3 of us now!
there are (not even) dozens of us!
It’s a small club, and you ain’t in it!
– George Carlin
I’m curious as to why you chose OpenBSD over other FOSS OSes
BSD is interesting. So it’s always worth giving it a try. It certainly won’t be as comfortable or convenient as Linux though. So exploring it on a side machine (or a secondary partition) is probably better.
I didn’t—I like to pick up old second-hand laptops that are selling for cheap and tinker with them (install different OSes, coreboot them, etc). One of the machines I regularly use is OpenBSD, but it’s not my sole OS. My gaming machine is Linux—afaik you’re gonna have a tough time trying to play AAA games on any other (FOSS) OS, but I’ve not tried, because the laptop I run OpenBSD on is an old underpowered Thinkpad anyway.
I picked OpenBSD over other non-Linuxes because of its focus on security. Also I think the pufferfish is cute. It wasn’t that deep of a decision for that particular laptop. I do find it quite an enjoyable OS to use, and I have anecdotally had fewer problems with it than with Linuxes, I suspect because their whole security focus also means fewer bugs.
Yeah I thought FreeBSD was the most popular BSD on desktop…
Thought the same. I think it’s a pun. Could become a meme even. Just put “OpenBSD 0%” in any statistics report.
When your market share is a rounding error.
It would be nice to know how well this data is correlated with actual people using Linux.
I remember whn Linux hit 4% as if it was yesterday.
People should stop posting StatCounter, it’s so unreliable and noisy.
But I am surprised by the Cloudflare numbers, which are a lot more reliable, and still have Linux at ~5% worldwide, which is still higher than I thought! And even ~6.5% for the past two months, though I imagine that’s a seasonality effect - maybe Linux users in the northern hemisphere are more likely to use their computers at home during summer? :P
5% is realistic. Steam survey says 4% of their users are on Linux too. These two numbers approximately match
Yeah I know, I’d much sooner trust those numbers - but those are pretty good numbers! Desktop only of course, but still!
I’m part of those numbers. I’ve dabbled with linux back and forth my whole life. Last year I tried to make the permanent switch but I was heavy into CS2 at the time, and it stuttered badly om CachyOS, and I didn’t have the patience to look into it as I was playing with friends. I decided this summer vacation that “fuck it”, even if I have to drop CS2 I want to get away from Telemetrows. Made the switch a month ago and to my surprise CS2 works flawlessly together with everything else. If you’re on the fence, make the switch!
Gonna need to know what they mean by “Linux” in this context. If it is Ubuntu/Fedora/etc that’s impressive, if it is SteamOS then while cool it is not nearly as impressive.
Nah, SteamOS is a normal Linux. It counts.
Edit2: you actually can get hardware surveys on steam os! Do you even get hardware surveys on steam os though?
Edit: question mark, curious here
It says “desktop use”. SteamOS is not desktop use.
It’s a gnu+Linux OS with a default desktop environment. It’s intended to be installed on bare metal where it’s accessed directly by the user.
It’s not for server use. (At least not primarily or by default.)
So I’m not sure where you’re getting the idea that it’s not desktop Linux.
It counts if you use it to visit a website participating in stats collection. Maybe excluded if the device has a touchscreen and requests the mobile site (I haven’t used a Steam Deck and don’t know its default browser’s config)
How not? Is the full KDE desktop mode not enough?
Honestly, this is too good of a news to be true. There has to be some kind of error somewhere. Not used to this.
Yeah how much is ai bots or other scrapers
This was my thought, too, especially with how stable Linux traffic is relative to other OSes.
It might just mean that more people are web scraping, and that web scraping is easier/cheaper on Linux.
The Steam numbers are more interesting to me, as a measure of consumer usage, since they should mostly represent people actually using their computer.
PornHUB puts out annual usage stats, too, but idk if they include OS. (When I used Reddit, their stats would come up on dataisbeautiful frequently enough to come to mind years later—they had some interesting stats, like average visit duration and that the most Republican states were the most likely to search for gay and incest porn, but I digress.). Would bots make up a high volume of traffic for them? I imagine not, since there’s little economic value in scraping it (to train LLMs, in particular — I think it would poison the training data rather dramatically!)
I suspect the data is tainted by scrapers claiming to be a Linux desktop because that doesn’t have the same fingerprinting systems.
That’s one of the industries Mozilla announced a while ago they’d go into.
Mozilla is getting into fingerprinting? Do you have a source or something more for me to search with?
Into providing web browsing to LLM agents as a service.
Why did it spike so much in just the last few months? That is a huge change!
Anecdote, but myself and a few people I know have swapped to Linux rather than install Windows 11.
No one wants to swap to Windows 11, even a lot of businesses; it’s that bad.
AI bots
Maybe because the whole being surveilled thing is pissing a lot of people off, I’ve heard a lot of talk of it on social media. Especially like how all the big tech is tracking everyone
It can’t all be because of the steam machine.
Honestly, at this point I don’t think Microsoft cares about Windows all that much. They make their money elsewhere, and even the control offered by owning the OS can’t be counted on, as the Internet Explorer wars showed.
At the same time, think about the weird coincidence that Windows 11 requires so much extra hardware firepower at the same time as said hardware firepower has become stupid expensive thanks to the same AI the company is pushing.
They made it unaffordable to run Windows 11, and that’s how we get the Year of Linux on the Desktop?
To be fair they released 11 before the latest price surges, might have been during the graphics cards price hikes though, can’t remember when that happened.
Very true, but they also caused some of the price hikes with their Copilot push, no?
Also true, yes. I guess we can agree that Microsoft sucks lol. But seriously, what Microsoft division is actually doing good things? Windows is bad, xbox is horrible, corporate tools like teams are widely hated… What, their azure thing is doing okay I guess?
I’ve been saying this since the release of WSL, but Microsoft has everything to gain from switching to the Linux kernel. Even back then senior devs were being laid off, and quality kept backsliding.
Fiscally, why would they want to maintain a whole ass kernel and OS layer when they could probably get away with some sort of custom Atomic Fedora distro?
It’s only exacerbated by AI slop now. Their NT team will continue to shrink, and they’ll be left with no other options.
They also gave up really quick on mandating Windows Server on Azure and are now mightily happy to offer the latest and greatest Linux versions. I think you are onto something there: if it weren’t for compatibility, it would be so much cheaper for Microsoft to just use the Linux kernel.
I seriously predict them contributing to wine, or at least making their own fork. Because their strategy is almost completely OS agnostic at this point. Even offering Dot Net Core on Linux natively.
How easy would it be for them? “Hey Copilot, convert these NT calls to Linux Calls” and your done.
I’ve said before, I expect we’ll see a future Windows release that’s just a Linux distro with a heavily proprietary userland. The more they can foist off to other projects and foundations for free volunteer labor the less they have to do in-house which is of course expensive
It would be so funny if they “outsource” their kernel to linux, because it would be cheaper… “Hey, hey, I’ve seen this one. I’ve seen this one. This is a classic!” ~Marty McFly
to be fair the internet explorer debacle is behind us, and we are way past the zeitgeist of holding them accountable for antitrust.
they can pump windows full of ads no problem and that should count to something but it’s never enough for them is it?
i think microsoft just doesn’t know what to do with windows and it shows (and it’s for the best, really)
“The last capitalist will sell us the rope with which we hang him” ass energy
Right? Windows gives MS enormous market power beyond the desktop license revenue. At the same time there’s obvious cost savings to be had by outsourcing the OS. What is the capitalist to do facing this conradiction… 🤭
They make their money elsewhere
They make a lot of money on Office365, which doesn’t work on Linux without WINE. With people switching to Linux, they’re going to start switching to LibreOffice and OpenOffice, killing one of MS’s cash cows.
Of course, I don’t expect C-suite execs to be capable of thinking that far ahead
Doesn’t the office suite still have web versions available? I had to use Windows & Office a few years back. I strongly disliked the weird animated cursor and didn’t bother to dive into the settings, so I switched to the web version. It should apparently have been “worse than the app”, but it didn’t have the horrible cursor and it worked on Linux with Firefox as well.
Way back in 2010 I made a prediction to my best friend using Windows: In 10 years we will have reached 10% market share. The catch with this prediction is, it was purely a wish without ANY understanding of the market whatsoever. Obviously 10 years passed and in 2020 I was wrong. We got COVID instead… Buuuuuut… only 6 years later we have already reached 10%!
Besides all the efforts that are going in into the Linux operating systems and eco system, we got two major companies supporting Linux with a huge impact: Valve, with all their gaming related efforts and Microsoft, with their free advertisement through Windows 11. Thank you to both companies and all other parties involved making this possible!
With that said, I make a new prediction: 10 years later, we (Linux) reach 20% market share AND OS X+macOS together reach 42%! Yes I even make a prediction for Apple. Also why is even macOS and OS X not a single graph, while everything Linux related is and even all Windows versions are a single graph? That makes the Apple line smaller than it is.
Also macOS and iOS are basically the same OS under the hood at this point. They’re closer than many Linux distros are to each other
