It’ll lose a lot of relevance. Casual users will move to smartphones and tablets, more experienced ones will move to Linux, and Linux gatekeepers will move to “the next big thing” once they no longer can control the user experience of others (just because a developer doesn’t use Neovim and Hyperland, does not mean they’re a fake developer).
Trying to turn every computer into just a dummy terminal that accesses a cloud server, rather than using the local resources
you mean 365 cloud pc?
Thin client for their online services. At least that’s what MS wants.
Microsoft pushes cloud and AI with increasingly negative side-effects. Eventually, EU regulation steps in to require offline-capable OS with fair and obvious choice. Microsoft tries to argue security, but ultimately fails.
Microsoft continues to push and connect their services as one, with synergy effects. Eventually EU regulation and prosecution steps in, requiring a neutral OS that must not pre-install software or point to other products in OS settings and apps, etc. Integrations must be openly standardized first, before implementing their own.
Despite all this, and despite a move from EU and EU-national institutions to sovereignty through shared open source solutions, Microsoft retains their strong/prevalent market position because the market as a whole is not as strategic and concerned, and Microsoft products like office, onedrive, Teams, and their other business software and services remain a predominant and grab-first choice, and the security promise of big enterprise software, battle-tested, with strong established auth etc remains a big selling point for them.
Drink an activation soda to continue booting.
There’s still a lot that only really works on Windows, and also a lot of people who don’t care enough to install a different OS than the one that came with the machine. I think the future holds more of the same, including continued enshittification. One day, Windows will be irrelevant, but I doubt it’ll be anytime soon.
None
Nice try Satya.
Losing market share to Linux.
Forget the cloud. What if the ad is the operating system? Windows 12 will be using a distributed architecture, running on top of global ad networks. Every advertisement medium (TV, radio, web, video) will include an x86 interpreter that runs Windows services (ARM support will come later).
The same tracking tech used to target you with that ad will be used to log you in to your Azure Copilot 365 OneDrive account, so you can access your files and applications seamlessly without having to remember a password or pin. When your smart toilet is showing you an ad for Draft Kings to earn your flush credit, you’ll be able to check your emails, connect with the fam, or ask Copilot for assistance.
Cloud. Windows is going to be sold as remotely accessible virtual machine hosted on Azure. The change will first take place in government offices, then in companies, and finally (after people get used to it at work) among consumers.
Why would gov and enterprise like it? Because of:
- safety - all enterprise data will be stored on Azure servers and won’t ever leave it. It makes preventing data leakage so much easier
- maintenance - software updates can be applied even outside of working hours, Microsoft could launch VMs and update at any time
- ease of upgrade - need better specs? you don’t need to buy better hardware anymore, you just buy better subscription. Hardware won’t become obsolete anymore that quickly
Consumers will also like it. No need to pay hundreds of dollars for new GPU when you just want to play newly released game. Also, all your data accessible from anywhere in the world.
And why Microsoft would like it? Kinda obvious, it would be even harder for users to quit a subscription, they will be tied to ecosystem even more
We are basically already there with Windows 365. It’s the comeback of the thin-client and the main frame. Everything old is new again.
I agree with the first part but simplify the “why they’d do it”:
- it’s easier to choose with nice marketing
- corruption.
- being able to externalize IT.
As for the rest, from what I’ve seen:
- Web infrastructure relies on open source. Military critical OSs are a custom from open source. Security is best working from open source.
- You can pay the same maintenance fee for open source programmers for chasing your targets, leading to Ubuntu, opensuse, LibreOffice teams.
- upgrade is debatable. In the end i’d guess you’re more often better off with your hardware or national servers, but that’s related to security.
Consumers will like it, then enshitificaction. Also your data anywhere in the world.
I think it’s days in home computers are numbered.
Most of the things an average person needs can be done through the web browser. You only need a Chromebook, phone or tablet.
Linux has suddenly become a viable option for gaming. This has been the one thing that kept many away from using Linux.
I don’t really see why anyone would want to use Windows for their home PC, other than familiarity. It doesn’t offer anything you can’t find better elsewhere.
It has a lot of momentum, so it will continue to dominate. But I wonder if it will decline over the long term as Linux continues to improve. Similar to how smartphones barely differentiate themselves from one another these days (compared to the past) maybe operating systems will have a similar fate. Maybe I’m a bit naive, but perhaps Linux will eventually have all the stability and ease of use of Windows, while also offering privacy, customization, and open-source benefits so there will be no real reason to use windows and the split will be more even.
Maybe… eventually…
honestly, i think linux is there. like, at this point, i don’t think it’s linux’s own lack of merits holding it back, but solely the lack of support from software companies.
The PC OS market is saturated and has been for years with Microsoft dominating the market since mid 1990’s.
They were smart enough to realize the market was tapped out a long time ago and have worked aggressively to transform the entire organization from an OS provider into a SaaS provider that also happens make the dominant PC OS. Windows is slowly becoming just a funnel to chain you to the Microsoft “ecosystem” and make it easier to sell you more of their services. Good business decision but shitty deal for the customer.
That said, one of the major selling points for Windows has always been backward compatibility. Enterprise customers like to keep running their ancient software and some of them will pay exorbitant licensing fees to keep doing that.
More subscription service pushing. Windows isn’t a source of revenue growth for MS, it’s a cheerleader. Lost subscription revenue for Windows on servers to Linux. MS SQL couldn’t stop MySQL, MariaDB, PostreSQL, etc. Games for Window Live and paid online gaming failed on PC. Windows Store has been a decade and a half dud. Gamepass looks stagnant and Xbox hardware in decline. Windows Phone failed - big reason Windows Store failed and no presence as a TV OS anymore besides the declining Xbox
MS wants products where users are continuously monetized. The software storefronts haven’t worked out like they wanted so focus on subscriptions and advertising. Azure, OneDrive, O365, Copilot, Gamepass less focused on Xbox hardware, … whatever else they can come up with. Windows will advertise them sacrificing user satisfaction for Windows
For MS it may be the right move. Don’t think there’s political willpower for trying again to compete with Android and iOS for mobile. Don’t think they’d even manage TV against Roku let alone Android TV or big TV makers like Samsung with Tizen. Apple would have to screw up hard with MacOS for those users to switch to Windows rather than sticking Mac or go to iPad’s. Android has a desktop cooking with an eventually graphics accelerated Debian VM. Linux in general still on the multi-decade nibbling towards the mainstream along with software like Blender, Krita, LibreOffice
OS reccuring fees is a server and enterprise workstation support contract thing. Trying to do that to consumer desktop would kill it pretty quick. Windows is in a hard place of being a mature big money maker that doesn’t look possible for growth but still too big to cast aside. It’ll straddle the line of advertising where MS tries to not kill its market share but nag users to buy MS subscription services. More telemetry for advertising
