Will I wake up one day to see everyone using Linux.
Best guess is slow growth that eventually plateaus around maybe the 10% mark if we’re lucky.
People are slaves to comfort, and ultimately that is what Microsoft and Apple are trying to sell. They want something that idiots can’t break, and they know the best way to do that is lock down the OS so much that you’re hardly able to interact with it at all. Unfortunately, there’s a lot of people fundamentally unwilling to expend the very, very small modicum of brainpower necessary to use Linux these days, and I just don’t think there’s any chance of reaching them.
You never know … maybe THIS year!
The way windoze 11 is going - people really hating it - you never know, but I’m not holding my breath. Linux is still very niche, and people are wary of “strange” “new” things, especially FREE ones - where’s the catch? I’ve seen it surge and blossom over the years, but it’s still got a really tiny install base (as long as you don’t count Android and embedded tech, where the OS and kernel are largely irrelevant to the user). But I don’t see people moving over to Linux in droves any time soon, really: I’ve seen too much.
For context, I’ve been using it since [dredges up old memories] slackware was new, so about 1994, when a work colleague and I installed it (off about 20 floppies) onto an old 386sx PC with probably 4MB of RAM. Been using it ever since - and from Red Hat 4 onwards (about 1999) it’s been my only OS on my own computers. I’ve always preferred it, and I’ve seen it grow in so many ways - I’d still use it if it was illegal. I haven’t tried EVERY distro, but I have tried most. These days I mostly stick with Debian or Debian-based distro’s (I’m currently on Mint LMDE).
If I’m being 100% real, it will not happen without some kind of MAJOR societal shift relating to how technology and law enforcement is managed. If Linux ever becomes the default option, you’ll have bigger things on your mind.
tbh I’ve always assumed it would take a majority of offices and other workplaces adopting it. Having no choice but to use it and then suddenly… “hey… why does this not suck?”
Plus bigger workplaces have more leverage with software companies which would increase the compatibility pool
Also the fact that I can pretty much run any exe through steam painlessly helped me with the switch. More people being aware of that could help
Aw, c’mon: 2014 is “The Year of the Linux desktop.”
Oh, wait…
As I see it, if there’s a fast pivot point to Linux it will be when the larger PC makers offer, side by side with a Windows option, a “with Linux pre-installed” option, especially if the final price reflects the cost of the OS license.
Even then, the shift would take years as people slowly replace old machines, a process which itself takes significativelly longer nowadays due to the current insane prices for some PC parts.
Sure, there is a drip-drip effect from people getting things like the Steam Deck and Steam Machine as well as tech types replacing whatever is in the machines of their family members with Linux as a way to avoid having to replace that hardware with newer (and at the moment far more expensive) machines, but I don’t think that adds up to much more that 1-2 per year.
Mind you, this is a point of view based on how things work in Europe and the US - it’s quite possible that things are very different in places like China and developing nations and there are very different pathways and reasons for Linux adoption.
Lenovo is the largest laptop manufacturer in the world by market share, and they’ve offered Linux preinstalled on many laptops and desktops for at least a decade
The manufacturer matters for the option to be at all available, but it’s the seller that matters when it comes to how many people go for it if there is one.
Non-experts tend to chose from what’s right there in front of them in the store front they’re buying from, not a manufacturer option that they’ll only hear about if they care enough and understand enough to actually go look for it.
In my experience most PC sellers don’t put their Linux options right there in front of you side by side with the Windows options and with equal proeminence, and this is as much true for online stores as it is for physical stores.
Lenovo offering it as an option is a pre-condition for people to actually get it but non-techies are still not going to get it if sellers don’t make it as visible and available as the Windows option, which personally I almost never see happen outside smaller techie-friendly PC stores.
On select machines.
And even then, mainly aimed and enterprise customers, right?
I believe Linux will experience a slow, steady growth because the technical alternatives for most Windows features and softwares already exist, making it pretty much a matter of time until people realize it. But the friction, like IT retraining, vendor certified vendor support from Adobe and other shit, and general user habits, are still too high.
Edit: Although, on a second thought, maybe not even that slow given Microsoft incompetence at managing Windows.
Valve’s Proton support bringing gaming to Linux effectively, Windows 10 reaching its EoL deeming millions of perfectly functional PCs as e-waste by requiring TPM 2.0 and a short list of CPUs, and Microsoft’s aggressive and incessant push of invasive telemetry and AI features (like that shit Recall stuff), are certainly driving a lot of users toward Linux. If Microsoft keep making decisions like this, I’m not sure how long they will be able retain their user base.
I feel like that already happened. There was a big malware attack on Arch recently.
It’s been gaining a pretty linear 0.5% market share per year for a while. Which is up a lot from the historic pattern of always being about 1%. Unfortunately I think the bigger trend is people giving up on personal computers and using a phone or tablet.
I think it’ll be interesting to see what happens when the AI bubble pops. A lot of people want to hold off on switching OS until they get a new computer, but the absurd prices of RAM and GPUs are stopping people from doing that.
I think you hit it: market share is going up as the market shrinks. Same (or even lower) number of Linux desktop users, but desktop users themselves are dwindling - migrating away. I know a scary number of people who use their phone for everything and are basically clueless at a desktop with a mouse and keyboard.
Well, the absured prices of some PC parts might actually drive some Linux adoption purelly because replacing an aging Windows install with Linux is a guaranteed way to extend the usability of the hardware, even for really old stuff (for most people, less so for gamers).
That said, the vast majority of people use whatever OS that comes pre-installed in their PC when they but it.
IMO, the only way the switch will actually happen is not the RAM or GPU, but if more manufacturers will start selling new/refurbished devices with Linux on it. Reason being: most people treat computers exactly the same way as I treat my car. I won’t bother replacing firmware, engine, transmission, or even tires on my car if there is no good reason for it. Same goes for people: they won’t be replacing OS, CPU, RAM, disk, etc, except there will be a really good reason for it.
Though, one thing to be mentioned: I generally see the trend that Linux is becoming more popular as more and more popular people adopt it (and are vocal that they have better time with it than with the alternative): PewDiePie, Linus Sebastian, etc. I think the trend might potentially accelerate, as more and more people are really unhappy with how well Windows works these days, and not everyone is ready to buy Mac (though the most recent Neo release success is a great indicator of how bad situation on the market is overall)
Depends on your country of origin. Some governments are actively moving to Linux (China) some (US) never will.
Stagnation around 5% tops.
Mostly stagnation
I agree with this. There’s no predicting when it will stop. I think it will grow significantly from where its at, but then using Linux will be like using Firefox vs. Chrome. No longer weird/niche, but never the standard or the thing most companies develop for first.
Well Firefox used to be very popular at some point.
Honestly, I hope that doesn’t happen. I think if everyone started using Linux it would end up being diluted with commercial entities. You’d have Linux companies like Canonical scooping up more and more market share until they are essentially just the Linux Microsoft corporation. At that point, any decision they make becomes the defacto law of the land despite smaller independent distros/groups trying to do things differently. Other choices would exist, but basically it would be like how most linux users have to live with systemd changes because it’s a nightmare to replace that without distro hopping.
You’d still see off-shoots for the desktop space, but if you want to use <INSERT_X> then you have go through this company.
At least in Linux you remain in control of the OS. If commercial players want to enter that arena, I welcome them, not as new Overlords, but as players on a level playing field.
I’ll also throw in: the more commercial Canonical takes Ubuntu, the fewer machines I have with it installed. Ubuntu’s value-add over Debian has been dwindling through the years - coupled with Canonical’s rent seeking behavior, I’ll rate Ubuntu 26.04 as a net-value subtract as compared with “rolling your own” Debian solution.
Literally what’s the downside? I always been in favor of even Microsoft getting into Linux. I want Microsoft to make a Linux desktop just like they have made a dos desktop. I want Microsoft to work on inter-compatibility like they already have done a bit with WSL. Add ext support to Windows, add proper NTFS support to Linux. Make something like Wine that is actually good.
This won’t kill community distros unless the corporations are doing a very good job.
What’s the problem with one commercial entity being the final say on all decisions in what would otherwise be an open source community? Well, that.
On one distro. 🤷
Hes saying theyd have so much sway that all other distros would have to follow whatever standards they come up with
Why? You can always do things differently than other distros
Systemd is used on ~70-90% of all distros. You don’t have to use systemd, but you’re probably going to be stuck using it. But you don’t have to. You could also install… Gentoo?
It’s widely used because it’s good.
Nobody is forcing all these distros to adopt systemd. Nobody is forcing distros to stick to systemd.
Linux is the most deployed OS on the planet, and the comparisons are not even close.
If you mean just for Desktop, it depends on what’s happening with the MacBook Neo, and if Microsoft gets their shit together and reverses course I suppose.
Big jump. To call it slow and steady now is nearly a lie.
A government will send out an RFP to Lenovo, HP, Dell to provide end-user workstations running their government standard distribution. It will be a 10-15 year commitment. This establishes hardware support.
They also establish a support agreement with an office suite.
This combo effectively sets up hardware and software support that becomes available to home users.
It’s almost the same idea as setting minimum wage or travel reimbursements for government workers and private sector follows.
Slow and steady, with occasional spikes when a government or mega-corp does something particularly terrible.
i think that linux usage will stagnate around 10% of people using it, with 90% instead choosing not to operate any computer at all …
